Gaming Analysis Details

• Naming
• Coverage
• Slot Machine versus Video Poker
• Hold estimates
• Race, Sports, Keno, Bingo and Poker definitions
• Clark County Definitions
• Rounding Errors

Differences in Naming

We use nicknames.  For example, the Nevada Gaming Control Board refers to the Airport Slots as the Michael J. Gaughan Airport Slot Concession.

Sometimes we refer to Paris and Bally’s or Flamingo and O’Sheas as 4 separate casinos.  The Board refers to Paris and Bally’s as 1 casino and Flamingo and O’Sheas as 1.

Coverage

The Nevada Gaming Control Board monitors all of Nevada.  We use a greater Las Vegas definition that includes Henderson, Summerlin and North Las Vegas but Excludes:

• Jean
• Primm
• Boulder City (even though Railroad Pass casino is closer to Boulder City than Vegas)
• Laughlin
• Mesquite
• Rest of Nevada

Slot Machine versus Video Poker

We try to differentiate regular slot machines from Video Poker machines because Video Poker has skill and different win percentages.  However, the Nevada Gaming Control Board does not differentiate.

They do unofficially monitor trends.  Privately, the Board has told Vegas Made Easy that they have noticed a trend back to regular slots from away from Video Poker over the last 2 years but have no hard numbers.

Hold % and House Edge

Nevada Gaming Commission Board only reports the win % for the casinos and do not try to reconcile that Hold % with the casino’s Edge on the various games.

A Table’s Hold is determined daily over a mix of players and unknown number of sessions per player per day.  This means the casino’s Edge is not the Hold % for the table.  Here is an example.  By the way, even casino employees don’t always understand why the Hold is different from House Edge.

Mr. Roulette, does a $10,000 Buy-In and plays for a while before going to lunch.  He comes back and plays some more before going to a movie.  He comes back and plays some more then leaves for the airport.

He looks at everything by gambling session so he has gambled 3 times that day.  He notices that each time he lost 5.26% of his money.  When Mrs. Roulette asks Mr. Roulette how he did, he tells her that although he ended up with $8,504 that he lost 5.26% each of his 3 sessions.

The Hold or winnings of the casino are calculated without any regard to specific sessions for specific gamblers.  It is simply the difference between what was gambled in total versus what was kept or Held in total by the casino in a 24 hour period.  If Mr. Roulette were the only player at that table that day, here are what the numbers look like.

Another factor that affects the Hold % is how well the game is played by typical players.  Blackjack has a low house Edge but is often played by morons who view Basic strategy as a form of multi-dimensional theoretical physics.   The casino edge will be higher than the theoretical casino Edge except for pure chance games such as roulette, etc.

If E is equal to the House Edge for a game such as 5.26% roulette and S is the number of weighted average sessions within a 24 hour period per player, then the formula to derive the Hold % is 1-(E) raised to the S.  If the average number of sessions is 3 then, 1-(5.26%) =.9474 raised to the 3rd or .8504.   Mr. Roulette left with $8,504 after starting with $10,000 and playing 3 sessions within the 1 day Hold period that casinos use.

Hold % is equal to 1-(1-E)^s

Race, Sports, Keno, Bingo and Poker

The Nevada Gaming Control Board considers a Race book, a Poker room, Bingo parlor etc. to be table games.  We consider these to be a separate category.  The Board keeps statistics on these so they are not too difficult to separate.

Gaming Control provides a single number for the race book pari-mutuel betting numbers which is not misleading but technically not quite correct.  Nevada race books actually have a pari-mutuel about half compared to other parts of the country but they have to pay broadcast rights and other fees so the total vig or commission ends up being about the same high teens number as throughout the U.S. 

Clark County Divisions

The Board divides up gaming by restricted and non-restricted properties as well as revenues and sub locations within Clark County.  Non-restricted have 15 machines or more.

Our casino universe are those with 100 machines or more.  If the proposed but probably scrapped Lake Mead casino opens, we might bend our definition since they will be sitting on the border with licenses for 99 machines.

The Board uses Strip, Boulder Strip, Downtown, North Las Vegas, Laughlin, Mesquite,  and Balance of County as their divisions.  Vegas Made Easy defines the greater Vegas area as the Strip, Near-Strip, Downtown and Off-Strip casinos which we further breakdown by North, South, West, East.

Rounding Errors

Our numbers are mostly based on the Nevada Gaming Control Board figures but with some differences.  The Board uses license counts which are no more than 3% off for the machine counts and less than that for table games.

Casinos pay money for each license so it is in their best financial interest to have licenses they will actually use.  When casinos redecorate or have machines down for maintenance the license and real world counts can diverge.  Table games are probably even closer to reality because the fees are much higher.  However, we usually count the tables physically and get counts that may be as accurate if not more so than the Board.

Vegas Made Easy immediately adjusts for closings such as the New Frontier.  As late as 3/31/07, the Board’s Nonrestricted Count Report was still listing the licenses for the Castaways as 1,042 total slots and 13 table games including their Race and Sports books.  The casino was imploded on 1/12/06.

When our numbers don’t round to the last digit with the Board’s numbers, we keep them as is and don’t adjust them.  The errors are always 1 digit and not that meaningful on a percentage basis.